交通与金融发展对碳排放的影响路径分析——基于“一带一路”战略圈定省份的研究

Analysis of the Impact of Traffic and Financial Development on Carbon Emissions: Based on the Provinces Delineated by the Belt and Road

针对"一带一路"沿线地区日益严峻的生态环境问题,建立了结构方程模型探究交通和金融发展对碳排放的影响路径;通过模型将交通和金融发展置于同一框架,具体分析了二者对碳排放的作用机制和影响效果;选取2006—2016年相关数据,实证研究表明:交通和金融发展对碳排放均产生正向作用,但影响效果具有显著差异;其中交通发展通过直接和间接两条路径显著影响碳排放,且直接效应大于间接效应;金融发展对碳排放存在正反两种作用路径,总的影响效果较小;建议发展绿色交通、绿色金融和绿色技术,助力"一带一路"。

Given that the ecological environment of the areas along the Belt and Road is increasingly exasperated,a structural equation model （SEM） is established to explore the impact of traffic and financial development on carbon emissions. Transportation and finance are placed in the same framework, and the mechanism and effect of the two factors on carbon emissions are analyzed in detail. Based on the relevant data from 2006 to 2016, the result shows that both traffic and financial development influence carbon emissions positively, but the impacts of each have a notable difference. Traffic development has significant impact on carbon emissions in direct and indirect paths, meanwhile, the direct effect outweighs indirect effect. There exist positive and negative functioning paths for financial development on carbon emissions, which makes the total effect small. In order to boost the development of the Belt and Road, it is suggested to improve green transport, green finance and green technologies.