系统动力学视角下台湾长照产业人力困境与政策

The Human Resources Dilemma and Policy of Long-term Care in Taiwan Industry from the Perspective of System Dynamics

台湾地区会在2026年迈入超高龄社会,台湾长照产业的结构呈现一个非常吊诡的状态：一是私营利长照机构相较于非营利机构,较容易落入恶性削价竞争的困境,二是长照产业人力资源不足。本文使用系统动力学建立台湾长期照护人力供需的系统动力模型,测试2中情境下的不同策略效果,研究结果显示：外劳专业化是最优杠杆解,外劳专业化政策能有效抑制长照人力缺口进一步扩大,解决长照员过劳情况。

Taiwan will enter the ultra-senior society in 2026. The structure of Taiwan＇s long-term care industry shows a very paradoxical state： firstly,the private institutions compared to non-profit institutions,are easier to fall into the plight of the fierce price competition; secondly,there is the shortage of human resources in long-term care industry. In this paper we apply the system dynamics to establish the system dynamics model of long-term care supply and demand in Taiwan,and tests the different strategies in the situation. The results show that the professionalization of foreign labor is the best leverage solution：it can effectively inhibit the long-term human gap to further expand,and can solve the problem of the worker＇serious overtime work.