我国肉鸭产业经济预测研究

Research on economic forecast of meat duck industry in China

笔者利用联合国粮食与农业组织（FAO）与国家水禽产业技术体系统计的肉鸭生产数据,运用ARIMA模型对我国肉鸭的出栏量和鸭肉价格进行了预测。结果表明：2017—2020年我国肉鸭的价格将继续逐步增加,但肉鸭价格并不会达到1万元/t的历史高水平;我国的肉鸭出栏量将继续逐步增加,总出栏量将维持在23亿只左右;总的来说肉鸭产业的总存栏量将呈现平稳增长的态势,而另一方面,肉鸭价格的增长过程比肉鸭出栏量的增长过程更为曲折。基于此,以保证产业稳定持续发展和肉鸭产品价格稳定为目标,对肉鸭产业未来的发展提出相应的政策建议。

The author used the production data of meat ducks collected by the FAO and the national waterfowl industry technical system statistics, and used the ARIMA model to predict the slaughter volume and meat prices of ducks in China. The results showed that the price of meat ducks will continue to gradually increase from 2017 to 2020, but the price will not reach the historically high level of 10 000 yuan / t. Addition- ally, the cluck slaughter volume of our country will also continue to gradually increase, whose total slaughter volume will be maintained at around 2. 3 billion. On the whole, the total stock of meat and duck industry will show a steady growth trend. On the other hand, the growth of meat duck price will be more tortuous than the increase of slaughter volume of meat ducks. Based on this, in order to ensure the stable and sustain- able development of the industry and the stable price of meat duck products, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward for future development of the meat duck industry.