基于风要素的黄骅港余水位规律分析及预报研究

Rule analysis and forecast study of residual water level of Huanghua port based on wind data

基于黄骅港港池站和航道40+0站的潮位实测资料及该海域的气象资料,对黄骅港余水位的变化规律进行了分析,结合风要素特征对余水位的预报进行了研究,得出了余水位预报公式。研究成果表明:(1)黄骅港余水位增水和减水发生的次数较接近,总体增水发生次数略多于减水发生的次数。余水位幅度90%左右都在0. 4 m以内,大幅度的余水位占比非常少。余水位的变化与风要素之间存在较强的相关性。(2)余水位越大时余水位计算公式可靠性越强,采用越宽阔海域的风资料其计算可靠性越强。

Based on measured tide level and wind data at harbor basin and channel 40 ＋ 0 sites, variation rule analysis of residual water level of Huanghua port was conducted. Combined with wind data, the forecast of residual water level was studied, and prediction formula was proposed. The research results show that ： （ 1 ） The occurrence frequency of water surge is close to reduction o, and the occmTence frequency of water surge is little higher. About 90 percent of residual water level amplitude is smaller than 0.4m, proportion of large amplitude is very little. The relationship between residual water level variation and wind parameter is strong. （2） Reliability of forecast formula is more strong when the residual water level amplitude is bigger. Reliability of forecast formula is also more strong when wind data in broader sea area is used.