盘锦地区冬季日光温室小气候预报模型研究

Study on Forcast Model of Microclimate in Sunlight Greenhouse During Winter in Panjin

利用2012年冬季日光温室内小气候和附近气象站观测资料,采用相关统计和逐步回归分析方法建立了冬季不同天气类型日光温室中小气候预报模型并对其进行了拟合检验。结果表明,不同天气状况下日光温室内小气候与外界气象条件的相关程度不同,影响室内小气候的因子也不相同。利用逐步回归和统计方法建立了冬季不同天气条件下日光温室小气候预报模型并进行了拟合检验,日光温室内日最高气温拟合平均绝对误差为1.5~2.8℃;日最低气温拟合平均绝对误差在0.5~1.3℃。两者的误差范围在±2℃左右,在预报范围内,预报效果较好。日最小相对湿度拟合平均绝对误差为1.2%~3.7%,预报效果较好。日最大总辐射拟合平均绝对误差为31.5~39.8 W/m^2。日最大总辐射拟合的平均相对误差较大,效果较差。

Based on the observed data of sunlight greenhouse microclimate and nearby weather station during winter in 2012,the methods of correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are adopted to set up forecast models of microclimate in sunlight greenhouse under different weather types during winter, and a fitting test is carried on the forecast model of microclimate in sunlight greenhouse. Based on the research work above, the conclusions are as follows： When the degree of correlation between the sunlight greenhouse microclimate and the outside weather conditions are different, the factors affecting the inside microclimate are also different. The methods of stepwise regression analysis and correlation analysis are adopted to set up forecast model of microclimate in sunlight greenhouse under different weather types during winter, and a fitting test is carried out. The fitting average absolute error of maximum daily temperature in sunlight greenhouse is 1.5 ~2.8 ℃;the fitting relative error of minimum daily temperature in sunlight greenhouse is 0.5~1.3 ℃; when the error range of the two is within±2 ℃,the forecast effect is better in the forecast range. When the fitting average absolute error of minimum daily relative humidity in sunlight greenhouse is 1.2% ~3.7%, the forecast effect is better; When the fitting average absolute error of daily minimum global radiation in sunlight greenhouse is 31.5~39.8 W/m^2,the fitting average relative error of daily minimum global radiation in sunlight greenhouse is bigger, and the forecast effect is poor.