城市等级和产业集聚以及外商直接投资——基于中国地级及以上城市面板数据的空间计量分析

City Grading,Industry Agglomeration and FDI——a Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on Panel Data of Prefecture-Level Cities

将城市等级、产业集聚和FDI纳入一个系统的理论分析框架中,建立空间面板模型,运用2003~2016年我国248个地级及以上城市面板数据实证检验了三者关系。研究发现:(1)城市等级对FDI的影响呈倒U型,当城市常住人口小于4317万时,FDI随城市等级的提高而增加,反之减少。(2)制造业集聚和服务业集聚对FDI的影响随城市等级的变化而变化。在大中小城市,制造业集聚促进FDI的流入,服务业集聚抑制FDI的流入。而在特大和超大城市,FDI随服务业集聚水平的提高而增加,随制造业集聚水平的提高而减少。(3)我国各城市FDI区位分布存在显著的空间效应,周边城市FDI流入、周边城市FDI不可测因素可以增加某城市FDI的流入量。

This paper has employed the spatial panel models to examine the effect of city grading and industry agglomeration on FDI by using the panel data of 248 prefecture-level cities. The results indicate that： （1） the effect of city grading on FDI exhibits a significant inverted U-shaped,＇when the population is less than 4317 million,FDI increases as city grading increases,and conversely reduces; （2） the effects of agglomeration of manufacturing and service on FDI vary ＇with the change of city grading; while in small,medium and big - sized cities, manufacturing agglomeration positively affects the inflow of FDI, service agglomeration negatively affects the inflow of FDI; in super cities and megacities,service agglomeration promotes the inflow of FDI,manufacturing agglomeration hinders the inflow of FDI; （3） the location distribution of FDI of China has obvious space dependence,the inflow of FDI and the immeasurable factors of FDI in surrounding cities can increase the inflow of FDI of certain cities.