国内外河流(网)非线性动力系统防灾分形理论研究综述

Review on disaster prevention fractal theory of nonlinear dynamic system in rivers(networks) at home and abroad

河流(网)非线性动力系统发展一般遵循"相对稳定—混沌—无序—分形自组织—恢复相对稳定"的变化规律,演变过程表现出一定的混沌分形特征。从长序列水文过程分形、洪水分期分形、河流形态演变分形、洪灾时序及频次分形、水文多尺度分形等5个方面,分析探讨了国内外河流(网)动力系统防灾分形理论研究动态及趋势展望。提出水利智能分形复合理论、流域多尺度洪灾分维动力机制、河型转化分维判别标准、河流演变复合参数分形特征与物理机制、堤防灾变系统演化分形混沌理论、水文多尺度智能分形与决策支持等方面是分形混沌学与水科学、灾害学及人工智能学交叉发展未来取得重要突破的关键方向。

The development of nonlinear dynamic system in rivers（networks） generally follows the law：＂relatively steady—chaos—disorder—fractal self-organization—back to relatively steady＂,and the evolution process shows a certain degree of chaotic fractal characteristics. From the aspects of long sequence hydrological process fractal,flood stage and fractal,river morphology evolution fractal,flood timing and frequency fractal,state-of-the-art and trend of disaster prevention fractal theory of dynamic system in rivers（networks）,multi-scale analysis and fractal in hydrology at home and abroad are analyzed and discussed in the paper. Some aspects which include composite theory of water conservancy intelligence fractal,fractal dimension dynamic mechanism of multi-scale flood disasters in the basin, fractal dimension discrimination standard of river pattern change,compound parameter fractal characteristic and physical mechanism of rivere volution and fractal chaos theory of embankment catastrophic system,intelligent fractal and decision support of multi-scale analysis in hydrology are key directions. These directions are about cross-development of fractal chaos science,water science,disaster science and artificial intelligence for great breakthroughs in the future.