专用道环境下公交乘客满意度与延误关系研究

Relationship between Passenger Satisfaction and Delay under Exclusive Bus Lane Condition

为了探究公交专用道被拆除的原因,对专用道运行条件下乘客满意度与延误的关系进行了研究。首先在常州开展了公交专用道乘客满意度问卷调查,调查共获得有效问卷251份。依托调查所获数据,采用有序Logistic回归模型,建立了乘客满意度与车内乘坐时间的模型,并根据乘客车内乘坐时间与延误的关系,得到了乘客满意度与延误的模型。为了能以图示的方式体现乘客满意度与延误的关系,引入了单位延误的概念,并基于乘客满意度与延误的模型推导出了乘客满意度与单位延误的模型。然后通过对所建模型的图形化展示,分析了不同理想车内时间下乘客满意度与延误的关系。研究表明:乘客满意度主要受理想车内时间的影响,其随着理想车内时间的增加而明显下降;乘客对延误的感知较为模糊,乘客满意度没有表现出因为延误增加而显著下降的特性;公交专用道被拆除主要是因为规划设计不合理,运营管理不当的致因较小。研究成果为厘清公交专用道被拆除的原因提供思路,有助于提升公交专用道的运营效果。

In order to explore why some exclusive bus lanes are removed at present in China,the relationship between passenger satisfaction and delay under exclusive bus lane condition is researched. First, the questionnaire survey of bus passenger satisfaction is conducted in Changzhou,in total of 251 samples are collected. Based on the collected data,the model of passenger satisfaction and in-vehicle time is established using ordinal logistic regression model. According to the relationship between in-vehicle time and delay,the model of passenger satisfaction and delay is obtained. To illustrate the relationship between passenger satisfaction and delay,the concept of unit delay is introduced,and the model of passenger satisfaction and unit delay is derived based on the model of passenger satisfaction and delay. Then, according to the graphical depiction of the proposed model, the relationship between passenger satisfaction and delay for different free in-vehicle time are analyzed. The result shows that（ 1） passenger satisfaction is mainly influenced by free in-vehicle time, and it will observably decline as free in-vehicle time increase;（ 2）passenger＇s perception on delay is very insensitive,passenger satisfaction has not remarkably deteriorated because of delay＇s increase;（ 3） the removal of the exclusive bus lanes mainly attributes to irrational planning and design, and inappropriate operation management has a minimal impact on it. The research findings herein provide insights for clarifying the reasons of removing bus lanes and improving bus operation effect.