基于FISM的多式联运网络风险结构模型研究

Study on Risk Structure Model of Multimodal Transport Network Based on FISM

多式联运网络由基础网络、运输服务网络和环境网络构成,风险因素在网络中相互影响、相互作用,共同形成一个风险系统。对多式联运风险研究成果进行梳理的基础上,综合运用文献研究、实地调研、专家访谈等方法,初步从基础网络、运营服务网络和环境网络3个方面识别了11个多式联运网络风险因素。适应我国多式联运当前的发展特点,建立风险因素的FISM模型,具体包括第1层的自然环境、信息共享、设备设施、场站设施、载运工具、人员能力、市场环境,第2层的线路能力,第3层的主体责任、管理规则,第4层的政治法律环境。清晰地展示了风险因素之间的影响关系和重要性程度,明确了多式联运网络风险的发生路径,为进一步做好风险管理和控制奠定基础。根据研究结果,从全方位加强政府推动和支持、培育多式联运经营主体、加强基础和服务网络联通、营造良好市场环境4个方面提出多式联运网络风险应对建议。

Multimodal transport network is composed of basic network, transport service network and environment network. The risk factors interact with each other in the network to form a risk system. On the basis of combing the research results of multimodal transport risks,11 initial multimodal transport network risk factors are identified from the aspects of basic network, operation service network and environment network by comprehensively using the methods of literature research,field investigation and expert interview.Adapting to the current development characteristics of multimodal transport in China,the FISM model of risk factors is established. It comprises natural environment, information sharing, equipment, terminal facilities,vehicles,personnel ability,market environment in the first layer,capacity in the second layer,main body responsibility,management rules in the third layer,and political and legal environment in the fourth layer. Besides,it also shows the effect relationship and importance extent among the risk factors,clears the incidence path of multimodal transport networks risk,laying the foundation for further improving risk management and control. According to the research result, the multimodal transport network risk response proposal is put forward from the aspects of comprehensively strengthening the government＇s promotion and supporting,cultivating the main body of multimodal transport,strengthening basic and service network interconnection,and creating a good market environment.