货币政策对住宅商品房价格影响的区域差异——来自我国31省份的证据

DIFFERENT REGIONAL EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY ON THE RESIDENTIAL HOUSING PRICES——The Evidence from 31 Provinces in China

我国房地产市场的发展演进与我国宏观经济走向有着密切的关系。由于我国不同地区间经济发展水平各异,经济运行特点有别,我国区域住宅商品房市场价格与宏观经济的联动关系以及对货币政策的反应效力均呈现出了明显差异。本文根据我国31省份的相关宏观数据,通过VAR/PVAR模型及统计学方法,研究发现了能够解释各区域住宅商品房价格趋势被持续维持的"正螺旋反馈机制"及货币政策的时滞效应。基于此,可将全国各省份的住宅商品房价格趋势的形成类型划分为货币政策主导型、经济增长主导型、混合主导型与房地产主导型。

The development and evolution of the real estate market in China has a close relationship with the trend of macro-economy. Due to the different levels of economic development in various regions of China, there exist a variety of characteristics of economic operation. Therefore, the dynamic relationships between the residential housing prices and regional macro-economy, in addition to the responses to the mo- netary policy are significantly different. The empirical analysis with 31 provincial macro data shows that the ＂spiral feedback loop＂ is consisted of every regional residential housing prices tendency by VAR/PVAR model and statistical method. According to the ＂spiral feedback loop＂, all provinces can be divided into four categories respectively： monetary policy leading, economic growth leading, mixed leading and real es- tate leading model.