相机抉择政策、经济增长与地区产出波动

DISCRETIONARY FISCAL POLICY,ECONOMIC GROWTH AND REGIONAL OUTPUT VOLATILITY

本文旨在研究地方政府的相机抉择政策对经济增长和产出波动的实际影响。本文首先从预算软约束和晋升激励的角度分析这一政策的作用方式,然后用模型测度出相机抉择政策,并以2000—2013年的省际面板数据进行实证检验。研究表明,相机抉择的确刺激了地方经济增长,但却带来了明显的产出波动。不过相机抉择政策具有明显的时滞,其真实效果集中凸显在政策实施的两年后。因此,我国应加强公共财政制度的建设,使相机抉择政策在规则的框架下更为合理地使用。

The paper investigates the effects in terms of discretionary fiscal policy of local government on economic growth and output volatility. First, we analyze the mechanism of discretionary fiscal policy based on local soft budget and promotion incentives. Then we extract the discretionary component of fiscal policy and use 2000-2013 inter-provincial panel data for empirical test. This paper finds that an expansion in discretionary fiscal policy boosts economic growth, but aggravates output volatility. However, the dis cretionary fiscal policy has the time-lag effect and its negative effects are mainly produced two years after it was implemented. In order to make discretionary fiscal policy play a better role, Chinese public fiscal sys tem should be improved.