一种浮动车技术的道路行程时间估计方法

Floating Car Technology Based Road Travel Time Estimation Method

针对现有基于浮动车技术的道路行程时间估计方法无法满足在不同浮动车占有率情况下对于估计精度要求的不足,利用前一时刻平均速度的稳定性和当前浮动车采集的平均速度精确性的优点,根据浮动车占有率动态分配权重,实现了较为精确的路段平均速度估计,从而实现了对路段行程时间的较为精确的估计.进而,针对在浮动车占有率高于预定值的情境下,提出的方法所存在的因浮动车采集的平均速度波动性导致的估计波动问题,本文提出基于加权融合的估计波动性平滑方法,使用加权平均的融合方法将基于浮动车的估计结果和固定检测器估计结果进行融合,有效降低估计波动.实验表明,本文提出的基于浮动车技术的道路行程时间估计方法在不同的浮动车占有率情况下估计结果的平均相对误差不超过0.7%,具有较高的估计精度,因此可适用于不同浮动车占有率情况下的道路行程时间估计.

Aiming at the shortcomings of the existing floating car technology based travel time estimation method cannot meet the requirement of estimation accuracy under different floating car occupancy rates,the advantages of the stability of the average speed at the previous time and the accuracy of the average speed collected by the floating car were utilized,which achieved more accurate travel time estimation.Furthermore,for the existing estimated value fluctuation problem caused by the fluctuation of the average speed collection under high floating car occupancy rate,the weighted average fusion method was used.The fusion method fuses the estimation results of floating car and fixed detector which reduces the fluctuation of the estimated values effectively.The experimental results show that the average relative error of the proposed method does not exceed than 0.7% in different floating car occupancy rate.As a conclusion,the proposed method has a higher estimation accuracy,and can be applied to estimate the road travel time under the different floating car occupancy rates.