全面二孩政策对中国人口结构及经济发展的影响及预测

The Impact and Prediction of the Universal Two-child Policy on China's Population Structure and Economic Development

基于中国人口宏观统计数据,使用回归分析及偏微分方程等方法,对全面二孩政策下的人口结构和经济发展进行分析,预测了中国人口的结构变化及其对经济发展的影响.研究发现:实行全面二孩政策,不仅可以改善中国的人口老龄化问题,而且实现了中国人口的平稳过渡,防止因人口波动所导致的经济波动,对中国经济的持续发展产生积极影响,预计中国人均GDP在2030年达到20.06万元,在2050年达到37.90万元.

Based on China ＇s population macro statistical data,used regression analysis and partial differential equations,the population structure and economic development are analyzed under the universal two-child policy,and the structural change of China＇s population and its impact on economic development are predicted. The results show that： Implementation of the ‘universal two-child policy＇can improve the problem of aging population in China,achieve a smooth transition of the population in our country and prevent economic fluctuations caused by the fluctuation of the population,which have a positive impact on the sustainable development of China＇s economy. China＇s per capita GDP is expected to reach $ 200 600 in2030,and $ 379000 in 2050.