风速相关性对电网输电阻塞的影响分析与研究

Influence Analysis of Power Grid Transmission Congestion Induced by Wind Speed Correlation

针对我国高风电渗透率地区电网的外送消纳问题,研究分析了风速相关性对电网输电阻塞的影响。首先,基于风速预测误差,建立了正态分布的风速不确定性模型;其后,采用拉丁超立方采样和Cholesky分解法排序构建相关性风电功率场景;最后,以西南某高风电装机地区电网为实际算例,仿真分析了风速相关性对断面潮流场景分布的影响和输电阻塞概率的变化情况。结果表明,相关性风速下的风电场出力具有一定同步性,样本粒子空间分布更为密集,使风电功率的波动性得到叠加,提高了输电阻塞概率,且与风速不精准预测的相互作用会进一步促进输电阻塞的发生;随着风速相关性增强,输电阻塞概率增大。

Aiming at the accommodation of high wind power penetration grid in China, the influence of wind speed correlation on transmission congestion is analyzed. Firstly, a wind speed uncertainty model with normal distribution is established considering the error of wind speed prediction. Nextly, Latin hypercube sampling（LHS） and Cholesky decomposition ranking method are used to construct correlated wind power scenario. Finally, based on the numerical simulation of a high wind power installation area in southwest China,the influence of wind speed correlation on the distribution of tidal power scenario and the probability of transmission congestion are analyzed. It is shown that the wind farm output under correlated wind speed has a certain synchronism, the spatial distribution of sample is more intensive. Due to the superposition of wind power fluctuation, the probability of transmission congestion is improved. The interaction between wind speed prediction and wind speed correlation will further promote the occurrence of transmission congestion.Additionally, with the enhancement of wind speed correlation, the probability of transmission congestion increases.