中国农业生态化发展的综合评价与系统诊断

Comprehensive Evaluation and Related System Diagnosis of Agricultural Ecological Development in China

本文基于农业生态效率和支撑约束条件两个层面构建农业生态化发展的综合评价指标体系,对1996—2015年中国农业生态化发展水平进行综合评价分析,同时对障碍因子和系统耦合协调关系进行诊断分析。研究发现：1996—2015年中国农业生态化发展的综合指数总体呈现波动趋势,自2007年呈现上升趋势。生态效率指数与综合指数趋势具有较高的一致性,经济条件指数和资源条件指数总体呈现上升趋势,而环境条件指数总体呈现下降趋势。1996—2015年环境条件和资源条件,农用柴油使用强度、生产性固定资产、粮食单位面积产量等指标对农业生态化发展的障碍影响较大。生态效率与综合指数耦合协调度高,经济条件、资源条件、环境条件与生态效率的耦合协调度较高。总体上,在促进农业生态化发展过程中,稳步提高农业生态效率的同时,加强支撑约束条件建设,当前时期尤其是降低环境条件约束力非常重要。

In this paper, we construct a comprehensive evaluation index system of agricultural ecological development based on agricultural ecological efficiency and supporting constraints and analyze the level of Chinese agricultural eco- logical development from 1996 to 2015, diagnose obstacle factors and system coupling coordinate relations. From 1996 to 2015, the comprehensive index of agricultural ecological development shows a general trend of fluctuation, and it has been on the rise since 2007. The ecological efficiency index and the comprehensive index trend has high consistency. The economic condition index and the resource condition index show an upward trend, while the environ- ment condition index shows a downward trend. The Environmental condition and the resource condition in 1996-2015 have higher barriers to comprehensive index of agricultural ecological development. The use intensity of agricultural diesel, the productive fixed assets and the output of grain per unit area and so on, have higher barriers to the compre- hensive index. The coupling and coordination degree of ecological efficiency with comprehensive index is high in 1996-2015, and the coupling and coordination degree of the economic condition, the resource condition, the environ- mental condition with ecological efficiency is relatively high. In the process of promoting agricultural ecological devel- opment, we should steadily improve agricultural ecological efficiency, and at the same time, strengthen the construc- tion of supporting conditions, especially in the current period, reduce the binding force of environmental conditions.