中国反制美国大豆进口的应对战略与启示

China's Resistance of US Soybeans and Its Insight

中国是世界大豆第一大进口国,中国大豆进口占世界大豆总进口的60%以上。目前,中国从美国进口大豆量占中国大豆进口总量的35%左右,占美国大豆出口总量的60%左右,中国反制美国大豆进口将改变大豆的全球贸易格局,提升南美地区在大豆国际市场、中国市场中的地位。中国政府应该加快推动中国农业供给侧结构性改革,鼓励国内农民增加大豆的种植,增加国内大豆供给,提高除美国之外的大豆进口来源的稳定性,战略性培育新的大豆进口来源国,尽快着手做好大豆替代产品的长期性供给工作,从而防范可能由大豆进口价格整体上涨而引发的国内食品价格的整体上涨以及通货膨胀风险。大豆事件的重要启示是:在充分利用国际资源满足国内消费需求以及服务经济发展的同时,一定要高度重视进口市场的多元化战略,农产品如此,资源能源类产品如此,技术类产品更是如此。

China is the world’s largest soybean importer, accounting for more than 60% of the world’s total soybean imports. At present, about 35% of China’s soybean imports come from the US, and about 60% of the US soybean exports go to China. China’s resistance of the US soybeans will change the global soybean trade pattern and improve the position of South America in the international soybean market and the Chinese market. The Chinese government should accelerate the agricultural supply-side structural reform, encourage domestic farmers to increase soybean planting, raise domestic soybean supply, improve the stability of soybean import sources other than the US, foster new strategic soybean exporters as soon as possible, and ensure long-term supply of soybean substitute products, so as to prevent the overall rise in domestic food prices and inflation risks that may be caused by the imported soybean price hikes. The important insight gained from the soybean incident is that while making full use of international resources to meet the domestic consumer demand and serve economic development, we must attach great importance to diversifying the import markets, which not only applies to the agricultural products, but also to resource and energy products and technological products.