减排约束下电力结构预测与优化研究--以江苏省2030年电力结构为例

Research on the Forecast and Optimization of Power Structure under Emission Reduction:Take the Power Structure of Jiangsu Province in 2030 as an Example

以总发电成本最小为优化目标,考虑供需平衡、环境容量、技术扩散等影响因素,构建电力结构优化模型,分情景对2030年江苏省煤电和新能源发电装机容量进行预测。研究结果表明:(1)基准情景中煤电装机容量预计为7 373万kW,新能源将达到5 357万kW;(2)需求情景中,随着电力需求增速加快,煤电装机容量占比将由67.1%下降至51.2%,而风光发电装机将分别达到14.7%和19.9%;(3)减排情景中,减排力度的不断强化将促使煤电进一步减少,而风光发电装机将增长至15.7%和19.5%。因此,江苏省应着重发展能源互联网,加快风光发电技术创新和规模化生产。

By taking the minimum generation cost as the optimization target and considering market balance,environmental capacity,technological innovation diffusion and other factors,this paper established a regional power structure optimization model to predict the 2030＇s power generation installed capacity of coal and new energy in Jiangsu Province by scenario analysis. Results show that：（ 1） In the basic scenario,coal-fired power installed capacity will be about 73. 73 million kilowatts and new energy will reach 53. 57 million kilowatts.（ 2） In different demand scenarios,with the increasing growth of power demand,coal-fired power installed capacity will decrease from 67. 1% to 51. 2%,while wind power and PV will increase to around 14. 7% and 19. 9%;（ 3） In different emission reduction scenarios,the strengthening efforts will lead to further decrease of coal-fired power,while wind power and PV will increase to 15. 7% and 19. 5%. Therefore,Jiangsu government should concentrate on the energy Internet to promote the technology innovation and large-scale development of wind power and PV power generation.