水库运用期的设计洪水理论和方法

Theory and Method of Design Flood in Reservoir Operation Period

水利水电工程兴建和气候环境变化,明显改变了河川径流及洪水的时程分配过程,并直接影响下游断面的设计洪水。本文综述讨论水电工程建设期的设计洪水、分期设计洪水、动态设计洪水和受上游水库影响设计洪水的研究进展及存在问题。提出水库运用期的设计洪水的科学问题,研究内容和关键技术,重点介绍最可能地区洪水组成和多变量分析理论和方法,为开展受上游水库运行调蓄影响条件下水库运用期设计洪水研究提供思路和方向。

The hydrological regime of the natural flood has been changed because of the reservoir construction and regulation, which directly impact on design flood in the downstream section. The methods and problems of design flood, seasonal design flood, and dynamic design flood, design flood considering upper reservoir regulation are reviewed and discussed. The scientific problems, main research contents and key technologies of design flood in reservoir operation period are proposed. The most likely flood regional combination method and multivariate analysis theory based on copula function are suggested. This study will provide research references and direction for design flood in reservoir operation period.