低碳经济视阈下外贸增长方式转型绩效与对策思考——以江西省为例

外贸增长方式由粗放式高碳化向低碳绿色内生型转变,既是学习贯彻习近平生态文明思想的实践探索,也是经济发展的现实所需。本文从江西省2005-2015年外贸增长的规模速度、外贸结构优化与出口结构优化对碳排放影响的回归分析来评价外贸增长方式转型效果。结果显示:江西省外贸出口与碳排放处于相对脱钩状况,对两者脱钩贡献最大的是资本技术密集型产品出口,高新技术密集型产品是江西省外贸增长方式向低碳绿色增长方式转变的主推力量,江西省外贸增长方式已呈现阶段性低碳化倾向。但由于高新技术产品出口增长不够稳定,意味着江西省外贸增长方式向低碳绿色转型还存在不确定性。因此,江西省外贸发展仍需协调货物贸易和服务贸易,进一步优化贸易结构;开展低碳技术国际合作,推动产业升级和技术创新;建立激励机制,加强政府制度和政策引导,以促进外贸真正实现低碳绿色可持续增长。

The transformation of trade growth mode from extensive high-carbon to low- carbon is a practical exploration to study and implementation of Xi Jinping＇ s thought of ecological civilization and also a practical need for economic development. This paper, by using regression analysis method of carbon emissions, evaluates the transformation effect of the scale speed of foreign trade growth mode, the optimization of foreign trade structure and export structure optimization on carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province from 2005 to 2015. The results show that the Jiangxi export trade and carbon emission are in a relative decoupling condition. The biggest contribution to the decoupling is the export of capital-technology-intensive products. Jiangxi＇s foreign trade growth shows a trend of low carbonization, and high and new technology intensive products are the main force of Jiangxi foreign trade growth mode transition to a low carbon green growth mode. However, due to the lack of stable export growth of high-tech products, there is still uncertainty about the transformation of Jiangxi＇s foreign trade growth mode to low-carbon and green mode. Therefore, Jiangxi still needs to coordinate the development of trades in goods and services to further optimize the trade structure, carry out international cooperation in low-carbon technologies to promote industrial upgrading and technological innovation, and establish incentive mechanism to strengthen government system and policy guidance as to promote the realization of low-carbon and green sustainable growth in foreign trade.