我国农业碳排放强度与农业经济空间相关性研究

Analysis on Spatial Correlation Between Agricultural Carbon Emission Densities and Rural Economy in China

为探究我国农业碳排放强度与农业经济之间的空间相关性,选取化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、灌溉和翻耕作为农业碳排放源和农民人均纯收入、单位耕地面积农业GDP和谷物单产作为农业经济指标,利用空间自相关分析法,分析了我国农业碳排放强度与农业经济各指标之间的空间相关性。结果显示:2001年、2015年我国农业碳排放强度与农民人均纯收入、单位耕地面积农业GDP和谷物单产之间均为空间正相关关系。高—高和低—低聚集区较多,而低—高和高—低聚集区较少。2001—2015年农业碳排放强度变化与农民人均纯收入变化、谷物单产变化之间为空间负相关关系,与单位耕地面积农业GDP变化之间为空间正相关关系。农业碳排放强度变化与农业经济各指标变化之间LISA聚集区空间异质性突出。

In order to explore spatial correlation between agricultural carbon emissions density and rural economy in China,we selected chemical fertilizers,pesticides,agricultural films,agricultural diesel,irrigation and ploughing as carbon sources,and set per capita net income of farmers,agricultural GDP and grain yield per unit of arable land as agricultural economic indicators.The spatial correlation between agricultural carbon emission intensities and agricultural economic indexes were analyzed by the method of spatial autocorrelation analysis.The results showed that there was spatial positive correlation between agricultural carbon emission intensities and agricultural economic indexes such as per capita net income of farmers,agricultural GDP and grain yield per unit of arable land in China.High—high and low—low concentration areas were relatively more,while low—high and high—low concentrations areas were less;there was a spatial negative correlation between agricultural carbon intensity changes and per capita net income changes of farmers as well as grain yield changes per unit of arable lands in China while the spatial positive correlation could be found between agricultural carbon intensity changes and agricultural GDP changes per unit of arable land in China from 2001 to 2015.There was spatial heterogeneity in LISA aggregation area between agricultural carbon emission intensity change and agricultural economy index change.