安徽省近56年气候要素时空演变特征

Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Variation of Climate in Anhui Province in Recent 56 Years

基于安徽省17个气象站及周边9个气象站逐日平均气温和降水量数据,利用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall检验、滑动T检验、交叉小波等方法分析了1960—2015年安徽省气候要素时空演变特征,并探讨其与ENSO之间的关系。结果表明:(1)年平均气温上升明显,春季变化幅度最大为0.3℃/10a,上升幅度最大月份分别为2月、4月、5月、10月份;年平均降水量略有增加,冬季和8月份降水增加达到显著性水平,其他季节、月份和年降水变化未达到显著性水平。(2)中部江南丘陵区气温高于淮北平原区和江南地区;江南地区为降水高值区,降水量随纬度增加而减少,冬季和夏季各地区变化趋势明显。(3)1994年年平均气温突变,突变后显著升高0.8℃;除夏季外其余季节均发生突变,春季平均气温变化最明显,突变后显著升高1.1℃;降水量在春秋两季发生突变,夏冬两季均无突变。(4)气温、降水量与ENSO有3~5a的显著周期,主要集中于20世纪60,80,90年代,年降水量周期比年均温周期在时间上相对滞后。

Based on historical data（1960—2015）on daily temperature and precipitation obtained from 17 meteorological stations in Anhui Province and 9 meteorological stations around Anhui Province,we made a comprehensive investigation of the change characteristics of the climate using climate tendency method,Mann-Kendall test method,moving t-test and cross wavelet method,and the relationship between the ENSO and climate factors was discussed.The results showed that,firstly,annual average temperature rose obviously,maximum variation was 0.3℃/10 ain spring;precipitation increased slightly,but the seasonal variation was larger,especially in summer and winter;in spring,summer,autumn and winter,the rise of the annual temperature was significant,the large rise of monthly temperature occurred in May,June,October and February,respectively,while the precipitation change occurred in April,August,September and January,respectively;secondly,the temperature in the central region was higher than that in the south and the north,and the low temperature zone was found in the Huangshan area;the temperature changes in all areas in spring were significant,and the summer changes were not obvious;the precipitation decreased with the increase of latitude,and the Huangshan Mountain area was the region with the high precipitation;and the trend of winter and summer was obvious in different regions;thirdly,abrupt change of average annual temperature occurred in 1994,significant rise in temperature was 0.8℃ after abrupt change;the abrupt changes occurred in the three seasons except the summer,the average spring temperature change was most obvious and significantly increased by 1.1℃ after abrupt change.The abrupt change of precipitation occurred in the spring and autumn period,no abrupt changes were found in the summer and winter;finally,the temperature,precipitation and ENSO cycle had a significant cycle of 3-5 years,mainly concentrated in the 1960 s,1980 sand 1990 s,and the annual precipita-tion cycle relatively lagged compared with the average annual temperature cycle.