修河流域洪水变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

Variation Characteristics of Extreme Runoff and Its Responses to Climate Fluctuation in Midstream of Xiuhe River

利用修河流域主要控制站万家埠、晋坪和虬津水文站实测最大洪峰流量序列,采用Mann-Kendall检验法和小波分析等方法,对修河洪水极值流量的趋势性、突变性及周期性进行了分析,并探讨了洪水极值流量变化与厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)、北大西洋涛动(NAO)、太平洋—北美型(PNA)、东亚夏季季风指数(EASMI)、南中国海夏季季风指数(SCSMI)、太阳黑子(SS)、西太平洋型(WP)等15个气候指标之间的相互关系。结果表明:万家埠站年最大流量表现为不显著减少趋势,晋坪和虬津2站年最大流量表现为不显著增加趋势。万家埠站年最大洪峰流量突变点为1972年,在1972年后最大洪峰流量发生由减少到增加的突变;晋坪站年最大洪峰流量突变点为1977年,在1977年后最大洪峰流量发生由增加到减少的突变;虬津站年最大洪峰流量突变点为1990年,在1990年后最大洪峰流量发生由减少到增加的突变。修河流域万家埠、晋坪和虬津站年最大洪峰流量系列在时频域中都存在着不同尺度的周期,既有2~8年的短振荡周期,也有超过20年的长振荡周期。除万家埠站最大洪峰流量存在22年显著周期,其余周期均不显著。修河流域年最大洪峰流量与ENSO,EASMI,PNA和WP均呈显著相关(p<0.05)。研究结果可为修河中长期洪水预报提供参考。

Based on daily runoff data from three hydrological stations in Xiuhe River basin,the characteristics of extreme runoff were analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis,and tele-connections between El Nio/Southern Oscillation（ENSO）,North Atlantic Oscillation（NAO）and extreme runoff in Xiuhe River basin were discussed.The results showed that the extreme runoff of Wanjiabu station had the insignificant decreasing trend,while the extreme runoff of Jinping and Zhajin station had the insignificant increasing trend.The abrupt change point for extreme runoff at Zhajin station occurred in 1990,while the abrupt change points for extreme runoff at Jinping and Wanjiabu station occurred in 1977 and 1972,respectively.There were 2 periodic oscillations：2-8 years and over 20 years.In general,extreme runoff in Xiuhe River has the significant relationship with ENSO,EASMI,PNA and WP.