基于COPERT模型的江苏省机动车时空排放特征与分担率

Vehicle Exhaust Emission Characteristics and Their Contributions in Jiangsu Province

利用COPERT模型和Arc GIS技术建立了江苏省2015年1 km×1 km、小时分辨率的机动车网格化排放清单.采用改进的"标准道路长度"方法,利用路网信息以及拥堵延时指数的月变化、周变化和日变化数据提高清单的时空分辨率.基于COPERT模拟结果分析了分车型、排放标准以及道路类型的机动车污染物排放分担率.结果表明,江苏省2015年NOx、HC、CO、PM_(2.5)、SO_2、OM和BC的排放量分别为49.09、16.63、161.48、1.69、0.19、0.36和0.67万t,其中苏州和徐州排放量占比之和达34%~45%;HC蒸发排放量为2.02万t,占HC排放总量的12%;小型客车和摩托车对于HC和CO排放量的分担率最大,均超过30%;重型柴油货车对NOx、PM_(2.5)、SO_2、OM、BC的分担率在36%~54%之间,远高于其他车型;苏州和徐州的重型和中型柴油货车是NOx、PM_(2.5)的最主要排放源;国Ⅲ标准柴油车对NOx、PM_(2.5)、SO_2和BC的分担率均最大,在42%~55%之间;国Ⅲ标准重型柴油货车和国0标准中型柴油货车是全省NOx、PM_(2.5)、OM和BC的首要和次要贡献车型,两者分担率之和在40%~56%之间.国0标准摩托车对全省HC和CO排放的分担率较高,约为16%.

An hourly vehicular emission inventory with 1 km × 1 km resolution was developed for Jiangsu Province in 2015,using the COPERT model and Arc GIS technology. The improved ＂standard road length ＂ method,as well as road network information and monthly,weekly,and daily variations of the congestion delay index were used to increase temporal-spatial resolution. The contributions of different vehicle types,emission standards,and road types to total vehicular emissions were analyzed. Results showed that vehicular emissions of NOx,HC,CO,PM2.5,SO2,OM,and BC were 490. 9,166. 3,1614. 8,16. 9,1. 9,3. 6,and 6. 7 thousand tons,respectively. On average,Suzhou and Xuzhou contributed 34%-45% of the total. Evaporative emissions of HC were 20. 2 thousand tons,accounting for 12% of total HC emissions. Small passenger cars and motorcycles were the major HC and CO contributors,accounting for over 30% of total emissions. Heavy-duty diesel trucks contributed 36%-54% to NOx,PM2.5,SO2,OM,and BC emissions,representing much higher emissions than other vehicles. Heavy-duty and medium-duty diesel trucks in Suzhou and Xuzhou are the main sources of NOxand PM2.5 emissions. China Ⅲ diesel vehicles account for the largest share（42%-55%） of NOx,PM2.5,SO2,and BC emissions. China Ⅲ heavy-duty diesel trucks and China 0 medium-duty diesel trucks are the primary and secondary contributors of NOx,PM2.5,OM,and BC emissions,with a total share of 40%-56%. China 0 motorcycles contributed about 16% to total HC and CO.