区域金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于江苏省1978—2016年的时间序列数据

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Regional Financial Development and Economic Growth Based on Time Series Data of Jiangsu Province From 1978 to 2016

基于江苏省1978-2016年的时间序列数据,构建VAR模型实证分析了江苏省金融发展和经济增长两者间的关系。研究发现江苏省的金融发展规模与经济增长之间存在双向的格兰杰因果关系,而金融发展效率对经济增长的影响不显著。鉴于此,首先要扩大直接融资规模,加快金融深化进程;其次要完善区域金融市场,提高金融发展的效率,提高金融服务实体经济的能力,助推产业转型促进经济的持续增长。

With the data of Jiangsu province from 1978 to 2015 and vector antoregressive model,the paper analyses the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Jiangsu Province. The results show that there is an interactive relationship between the scale of financial development and economic growth in Jiangsu. In view of this,we must first expand the scale of direct financing to accelerate the process of financial deepening. Secondly,we should accelerate financial market reform and improve the efficiency of financial development so as to promote the sustained and stable economic development in Jiangsu.