水资源环境系统脆弱性分析及评价方法研究

Evaluation Method Research and Vulnerability Analysis of Water Resources Environmental System

经济社会发展过程中的水资源问题已不容忽视,通过对经济社会发展过程中水资源生态环境系统状态变化的分析,从环境条件、环境损害和环境修复三方面探讨水资源环境系统脆弱性的机理,并构建由年降水量、植被覆盖率、地表水环境质量、单位耕地化肥负荷、工业废水排放强度、生态环境用水比例、水土流失治理面积比等15个指标组成的水资源环境系统脆弱性指标体系。采用集对分析法建立了水资源环境系统脆弱性分析方法,以安徽省为例,对水资源环境系统脆弱性状况进行了分析。结果表明,2001—2015年,安徽省水资源环境系统脆弱性等级范围为2. 518~3. 276,水资源环境系统脆弱性状况总体趋于改善;以2008年为界分为2个阶段:2001—2007年,安徽省水资源环境系统脆弱性等级大于3,可判定为中度脆弱(3级); 2008—2015年,安徽省水资源环境系统脆弱性等级小于3,可判定为轻脆弱(2级)。

The water resources problems, which brought forth by economic and social development, should not be ignored any more. Based on the analysis of water resources environmental system state change in economic and social development, the water resources environmental system vulnerability mechanisms were analyzed considering ecological conditions, environmental damage and environmental remediation, then, we constructed a water resources environmental system vulnerability evaluation index system, which include 15 specific indexes, such as annual precipitation, vegetation coverage, suHsce water environment quality, unit farmland fertilizer load, industry wastewater discharge intensity, ratio of ecological water consmnption and ratio of soil erosion control area, etc. The vulnerability analysis method of water resources environmental system was established by using set pair analysis method, and the vulnerability of water resources environmental system in Anhui was analyzed by this method. The results show that, the vulnerability grade of water resources environmental system is between 3. 276 and 2. 518 from 2001 to 2015. The 15-year time series was divided into two parts by the year 2008, the vulnerability level is moderate vulnerability （ level 3） in 2001 - 2007, and is low vulnerability （ level 2） in 2008 -2015.