黑龙江省国有林区贫困-生态系统恢复力测度与影响机制

Measurement and Mechanism of Poverty-Ecology System Resilience of the State-Owned Forest in Heilongjiang Province,China

系统恢复力指系统遭到外界干扰后恢复到原状的能力,受到脆弱性和应对能力共同影响,系统恢复力越大则系统越稳定。基于系统恢复力概念及内涵,利用集对分析法和墒值赋权法构建黑龙江国有林区贫困-生态系统恢复力测度模型,从脆弱性和应对能力两大层面以及贫困和生态两大子系统入手测度林区贫困-生态系统恢复力,并分析天然林保护工程实施后黑龙江国有林区贫困-生态系统恢复力的演变及影响因子作用机制。结果表明:(1) 1998—2015年黑龙江国有林区贫困-生态系统总脆弱性指数由0.41缓慢上升至0.52,系统总应对能力指数由0.10快速上升至0.85,系统总恢复力指数也由0.23上升至0.73。(2)生态系统脆弱性对系统总脆弱性影响较大,贫困系统应对能力对系统总应对能力影响较大,系统总恢复力与总脆弱性和总应对能力的关系呈阶段性特征,1998—2006年总脆弱性对总恢复力的影响较大,2007—2015年总应对能力逐渐对系统总恢复力起关键作用。(3)各影响因子对恢复力的影响方向和速率具有明显的不确定性,主要包括线性和非线性影响,其中又以非线性影响为主。

System resilience reters to the ability of the system to return to its original state after being disturbed and the greater the system＇s resilience, the higher its stability. Vulnerability and response capacity together attect the resilience of the system. Based on the concept and implications of system resilience, this paper constructs a measure model of poverty-ecology system resilience in China＇s Heilongjiang State-Owned Forest Region. It does so by employing set pair analysis and the entropy method, while the study propose the poverty-ecology system resilience indicators, including the vulnerability and response capacity in poverty and ecology subsystem, and analyzes the evolution trend and the driving mechanism of resilience. The results show that, from 1998 to 2015, the poverty ecological system total vulnerability index of the region increased slowly, from 0.41 to 0.52, the total system resilience index increased rapidly, from 0.10 to 0.85, and the total system resilience index increased from 0.23 to 0.73. The vulnerability of the ecological subsystem has a substantive impact on the system＇s overall vulnerability, while the response capacity of the poverty subsystem has a substantive influence on the system＇s total response ability. The relationship between the system＇s total resilience and the total vulnerability and total response capacity presents stages： from 1998 to 2006, the total vulnerability had a greater impact on the total resilience, while the total response capacity gradually played a key role in the total resilience from 2007 to 2015. The direction and rate of impact on resilience was obviously uncertain, and the relationship between the impact factors and the resilience demonstrates linear and nonlinear effects, though the latter dominate.