区域农业生产结构对沼气发展的影响——基于2014年全国31省平行数据的分析

The Effect of Agriculture Structure on the Biogas Industry Development:Based on the Analysis of the Panel Data of 31 Provinces in 2014

为了解析近年来沼气产业发展缓慢的原因,基于2014年全国31省(直辖市)的平行数据用多元线性回归模型分析了区域农业生产结构对人均沼气量的影响。结果表明粮食作物播种面积人均沼气量呈显著的负相关关系,意味着沼气产业在秸秆丰富的产粮区还有待发展,非粮作物播种比重增加将有利于沼气产业发展。牛的饲养数与人均沼气量呈显著的正相关关系(相关系数:0.293),沼气在养牛业中应用得较好;但猪的饲养数与人均沼气量相关性不显著,表明猪粪沼气化处理不平衡;因为养羊业目前以放牧为主,并受技术条件的限制,沼气在养羊业未得到充分推广。在国内关于沼气的入户调查的结果表明农户利用沼气的概率与农作物播种面积、牲畜和家禽存栏数呈正相关关系;在种植业区或半农半牧地区,农户使用沼气效率更好。本研究的结果与文献中入户调查结果相似。

For analyzing the reason for the plateau of biogas industry in recent years, the paper used nmltiple regression model to ana- lyze the effect of regional agriculture structure on the capita biogas based on the panel data of 31 Chinese provinces in 2014. The result indicated that there was a significant negative correlation between the grain sowing area and capita biogas. It was difficult to promote biogas in grain production area, and the rise on the ratio of non-grain crop sowing area in the plantation structure was beneficial to develop biogas industry. The significant correlation existed between the total number of cattle and capita biogas （Correlation coefficient： 0.293）. It implies that biogas was applied efficiently on cattle farming. The number of pigs had no significant correlation with biogas. This means that biogas was not used efficiently to deal with pig manure for imbalaneed technology development in different provinces. The application of biogas on sheep fainting was restricted by current technology and management condition. The results are also similar to the literature review based on questionnaire.