基于F检验的金沙江下游梯级径流还现分析研究

On the Natural Flow Derivation of the Downstream Jinsha River based on F-test

流域工程条件的变化会不可避免地对径流分配造成影响。通过对长江流域金中梯级和雅砻江梯级的蓄泄过程分析,展开对其下游金下梯级的径流还现计算。进一步采用F检验对现状年和历史径流系列进行差异显著性检验,并对径流还现前后检验结果作对比,证实上游库群的建设对下游年内径流分配的影响。同时逐旬分析还现径流不同水平年序列的一致性,验证还现结果的合理性,为今后流域库群联合调度奠定数据基础。

Changes of engineering conditions of any river basin will inevitably affect the distribution of the river flow.Through the analysis on the storage and discharge process of the cascade reservoirs in the midstream Jinsha River and Yalong River in the Yangtze River basin,the natural flow derivation of the downstream Jinsha River is carried out considering the downstream cascade reservoirs. Then,significance tests are carried out to determine the differences between the status-quo year and the historical flow data series with F-test. Also,the results of the significance tests for data series before and after the natural flow derivation are compared,which confirm the influences of the upstream cascade reservoirs on the downstream flow distribution. In addition,consistency analyses are carried out on the data series of different target years,which verify the rationality of the derivation results. The results could provide useful data for the joint dispatching of the reservoir group in the Yangtze River basin in the future.