金砖国家预算支出扩张能否促进经济增长？--基于多频谱分解方法的协整分析

Can BRICS' Budget Expenditure Expansion Facilitate Economy Growth?——Based on Multi-spectrum Decomposition and Cointegration Analysis

金砖国家经济增长迅速,预算支出规模持续扩张。为讨论预算支出规模扩张对经济增长的政策效应,本文引入MODWT方法对金砖国家财政、经济数据序列做成分分解以去除短期高频扰动成分,基于经济与财政收支序列数据的协整关系,建立VECM模型并分析金砖国家预算支出及收入扩张对经济产出的影响效应。本文认为,金砖国家经济产出与预算收支存在长期稳定的结构均衡关系,支出扩张政策可促进经济增长;综合考虑收入扩张政策的影响作用,这一结论仍成立。但中国预算收入扩张政策具有较强的负向抑制作用,减弱支出扩张政策促进经济增长的有效性。

Since recent decades, the BRICS＇ budget expenditures have expanded rapidly with their economy growth, which contradicts the opinions from growth theory. To discuss the effect of budget expenditure expansion policy on economic growth, this paper introduces the Maximum Likelihood Wavelet Decomposition（MODWT）algorithm to remove the high-frequency disturbance components in short-term. Based on the long-term cointegration relationship between fiscal revenue, expenditure and economic output, this research uses the VEC model to analyze the impact of BRICS＇budget expenditures on economic growth. This paper argues that there is a long-term and stable structural balance between economic output and fiscal factors in BRICS countries, and that the expenditure expansion policy can promote economic growth. This conclusion is still valid when considering the impact of revenue expansion policies. China＇s budget revenue expansion policy has a strong negative inhibitory effect, diminishing the effectiveness of expenditure expansion policy to promote economic growth.