财政支出对实体经济影响的空间计量——基于省级面板数据分析

The Spatial Estimation of the Impact of Fiscal Expenditure on the Real Economy——Based on the Provincial Panel Data Analysis

基于2007-2016年中国31个省市地区(除港澳台地区外)的省级面板数据,运用空间面板模型分析了省级财政支出对实体经济的影响,并利用面板数据模型分析了东部、中部、西部、东北部地区民生安全等四个方面财政支出对实体经济影响的区域差异,研究结果表明:一是我国省级实体经济存在显著的正向空间相关关系,在地理上表现出聚集效应,省级实体经济在空间上的聚集效应并未明显受到外部因素的冲击。二是民生安全、城乡协调、经济服务支出,以及城镇化率、劳动力要素、资本要素、技术要素均对实体经济发展产生显著的正向影响,临近省份资本要素的提高有利于本省实体经济的发展,但临近省份民生安全、劳动力要素、市场开放程度的提高不利于本省实体经济的发展。三是财政支出对实体经济发展的区域差异显著。为此,需要优化财政支出结构,强化区域协调发展,不断提升实体经济高质量发展水平。

Based on the provincial panel data of 31 provinces and regions（except Hong Kong and Macao regions） in China from 2007 to 2016, this paper uses the spatial panel model to analyze the impact of provincial fiscal expenditure on the real economy, and to analyze the regional differential of the impact. The results show that： Firstly, the provincial real economy has significant positive spatial correlation in China, showing agglomeration effect in geography, and the agglomeration effect of provincial real economy is not impacted by external factors obviously. Secondly, the expenditure of the public livelihood security, coordination of urban and rural areas and economic service, and the rate of urbanization, labor, capital and technology factors have a significant positive impact on the real economy, the capital increase in neighboring provinces does favor to the development of the real economy, but the improvement of the expenditure of the public livelihood security, labor factor and the rate of the market openness are not in favor of the development of the real economy. Thirdly, the financial expenditure has significant regional differences on the development of the real economy. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the structure of financial expenditure, highlight the differences in regional development, and improve the competitiveness of the real economy.