“一带一路”愿景下的中国对南亚农产品出口贸易:需求、结构与竞争力

Analysis of China's Agricultural Products Export to South Asia from the Aspects of Demand,Structure and Competitive

文章根据UN COMTRADE数据,分析1992—2015年中国与南亚地区农产品出口贸易总体规模、产品结构和国别结构,并依据恒定市场份额模型(CMS模型)从需求、结构和竞争力三个角度剖析了出口贸易变化的原因。研究结果表明:南亚地区进口需求规模的增加是中国对南亚地区农产品出口增长的主要原因,但其作用强度逐渐减弱;农产品结构变化总体上对中国—南亚农产品出口贸易增长的贡献较小甚至在部分时段阻碍出口增长,近年来出口结构适应性有所提升。竞争力因素对农产品出口有着积极的作用,中国对南亚地区农产品出口的增长正由需求主导转向竞争力主导。

Using the UN COMTREADE data and constant market share model,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the factors influencing China agricultural products export to South Asia from 1992 to 2015. The results show that the expanding of import demand is the main reason for the growth of agricultural products exports to South Asia,but its effect intensity is weakening. On the whole,changing in agricultural product structure have little contribution to the growth of agricultural product export trade between China and south Asia,and even hinder export growth in some periods of time. The adaptability of export structure has improved in recent years and competitive factors play a positive role in agricultural products export. China＇s agricultural products export growth in south Asia is changing from demand-led to competitive-led.