收入不平等对我国经济增长动力的非线性动态效应分析——基于面板平滑转换模型的省际面板数据分析

Nonlinear Dynamic Effect of Income Inequality on China's Economic Growth——Based on Panel Smooth Transition Model with Interval Panel Data Analysis

基于DEA-Malmquist指数法对我国30个省、自治区及直辖市(除西藏外)1979-2015年的TFP增长率进行测度并分解,发现我国TFP增长率在21世纪以后逐渐放缓,并在2008年世界经济危机时达到最低。占主导效应的技术进步的贡献逐渐降低,各个省份的TFP增长率存在绝对收敛和条件收敛。在此基础上,以城乡收入差距为门槛变量建立PSTR模型,发现城乡收入差距对经济增长动力存在门槛效应,影响人力资本、金融发展、外商直接投资、贸易开放度对TFP增长率、技术进步增长率、技术效率增长率的作用机制,当前我国大部分省份城乡收入差距超过门槛值。

The TFP growth rate of China＇s 30 provinces and municipalities （except Tibet） from 1979 to 2015 was measured and decomposed based on the DEA-Malmquist method. It was found that the TFP growth rate of China gradually slowed down after the 21st century. It reached a minimum at the world economic crisis in 2008. The contribution of technological progress which dominates the effect is gradually reduced; the TFP growth rate of each province has absolute convergence and conditional convergence. On these bases, the PSTR model is established based on the urban-rural income disparity as a threshold variable, and the urban-rural income gap has a threshold for economic growth effect, affecting human capital, financial development, foreign direct investment, trade openness on TFP growth rate, technological progress and technological efficiency growth rate of the mechanism. In fact, most of our current urban-rural income gap has exceeded the threshold.