基于UR-MTPGERT网络模型的复杂装备风险传导分析

Complex equipment risk conduction analysis based on UR-MTPGERT model

针对复杂装备风险传导关系描述不清晰的问题,构建了风险传导不确定随机多传递参量图形评审技术(UR-MTPGERT)网络模型。首先,基于机会理论,定义了不确定随机变量的矩母函数,并在此基础上构建了UR-MTPGERT网络模型。其次,为刻画复杂装备的微观风险信息,在模型中引入系统风险度、风险元重要度、风险路径关联度等解析参数。然后,求解矩母函数时,采用德尔菲法处理专家经验数据,得到经验不确定分布,并利用极大熵模型处理随机数据,得到概率密度函数;引入矩阵分析技术,解决了网络拓扑分析困难的问题,在此基础上计算网络参数。最后,对某型飞机进行安全性分析,结果表明,该模型能清晰反映风险元间的关系,可以为复杂装备的风险分析、预判和安全控制提供借鉴。

Aimed at the problem of unclear description of the conduction relationship of complex equipment risks,a risk conduction uncertain random multi-transfer parameter graph evaluation and review technique（UR-MTPGERT） model is constructed. First,based on the opportunity theory,the moment function of uncertain random variables is defined,and then a multi-transter parameter UR-MTPGERT network is constructed.Second,to describe the micro-risk information of complex equipment systems,analytic parameters are introduced in the model including the degree of risk,the importance of risk primitives and the degree of relevance of risk paths. Then,when solving the moment function,the Delphi method is used to process the expert empirical data to obtain the empirical uncertainty distribution,and the maximum entropy model is used to process the random data. The probability density function is obtained. The matrix analysis technique is introduced to solve the problem of difficult network topology analysis. On this basis,the network parameters are calculated.Finally,the safety analysis of a certain type of aircraft is carried out. The results show that the model can clearly reflect the relationship between risk elements and provide reference for the risk analysis,prediction and safety control of complex equipment.