舟山市呼吸道传染病季节特征的圆形分布法分析

Circular distribution analysis on seasonal characteristics of respiratory infectious diseases in Zhoushan

目的应用圆形分布法分析舟山市2015—2017年呼吸道传染病的季节性分布特征,为制定呼吸道传染病防控措施提供依据。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息系统导出舟山市2015—2017年麻疹、水痘、肺结核、流行性腮腺炎(流腮)、流行性感冒(流感)和流感样病例的监测数据,应用圆形分布法分析这些呼吸道传染病的季节特征。结果麻疹发病呈单峰型分布,存在季节性集中趋势,2015年发病高峰为3月31日(1月31日—5月29日,r=0.583);2016年为3月17日(1月26日—5月5日,r=0.556);2017年为4月10日(2月9日—6月9日,r=0.682)。水痘、流腮、流感和流感样病例发病均呈双峰型分布,均存在季节性集中趋势;水痘发病高峰为4月2日(3月2日—5月3日,r=0.670)和12月20日(11月2日—2月1日,r=0.221);流腮发病高峰为4月7日(3月12日—5月3日,r=0.745)和10月25日(9月6日—12月13日,r=0.138);流感发病高峰为8月13日(7月21日—9月5日,r=0.645)和12月19日(11月21日—1月6日,r=0.715);流感样病例发病高峰为8月9日(6月27日—9月21日,r=0.217)和12月24日(11月20日—1月27日,r=0.610)。肺结核发病的季节性不明显(r=0.078),全年均匀分布。结论舟山市2015—2017年麻疹、水痘、流腮和流感呈季节性流行,高峰期多集中在冬春季;肺结核发病的季节性不明显。

Objective To analyze the seasonal characteristics of respiratory infectious diseases in Zhoushan from 2015 to 2017,and to provide the basis for prevention and control of the diseases. Methods The surveillance data of measles, chickenpox,tuberculosis, mumps, influenza and influenza-like illness（ILI） in Zhoushan from 2015 to 2017 were collected from the notifiable infectious disease reporting system. Circular distribution analysis was used to analyze the seasonal characteristics of the above diseases. Results The incidence of measles showed seasonal distribution with single peak, which was March 31 st（January 31 st-May 29 th, r=0.583） in 2015, March 17 th（January 26 th-May 5 th, r=0.556） in 2016 and April 10 th（February 9 th-June 9 th,r=0.682） in 2017. The incidence of chickenpox,mumps,influenza and influenza-like illness（ILI）showed seasonal distribution with two peaks. The peaks of chickenpox were April 2 nd（March 2 nd-May 3 rd, r=0.670） and December 20 th（November 2 nd-February 1 st,r=0.221）. The peaks of mumps were April 7 th（March 12 th-May 3 rd,r=0.745）and September 25 th（September 6 th-December 13 th,r=0.138）. The peaks of influenza were August 13 th（July 21 st-September5 th, r=0.645） and December 19 th（November 21 st-January 6 th, r=0.715）. The peaks of ILI were August 9 th（Jun.27 th-Sep. 21 th, r=0.217） and December 24 th（November 20 th-January 27 th, r=0.610）. The seasonal distribution of tuberculosis was not obvi ous（r=0.078）. Conclusion From 2015 to 2017, measles, chickenpox, mumps and influenza in Zhoushan are prevalent mostly in winter and spring;while the seasonal characteristics of tuberculosis is not obvious.