中国金融资本重心迁移及其影响因素的空间计量分析

China’s Financial Capital Center Moving and Spatial Econometric Analysis of Its Influencing Factors

文章采用2006-2016年全国31个省市地区资金总量、社会消费、房地产投资、进出口总额、机场货邮量、铁路货运量、科教支出的面板数据,首先通过绘制历年的金融资本重心的迁移轨迹发现其有向内陆移动的趋势,并通过Moran指数I的计算发现中国省际资金总量存在空间自相关性,依此为基础,建立空间杜宾模型探索了区域内需、房地产投资、对外贸易、机场货邮量、铁路货运量、科教支出指标对区域金融资本的影响.结果表明：社会消费对区域资金聚集有促进作用;房地产投资与进出口在2014年之前对资金聚集作用为正且显著,但之后对资金聚集作用不显著;机场货邮量对区域资金聚集有明显的促进作用,而铁路货运量则对区域聚集呈现负效应;科教支出对区域资金聚集有显著的促进作用;资金的聚集有空间外溢效应.

This paper first points out the trend that the financial capital center moves inland by drawing thetrajectory of financial capital center with the 2006-2016 panel data of 31 provinces,regions and cities, whichcomprises total amount of funds, social consumption, real estate investment, foreign trade, airport cargovolume, rail freight, science and education expenditure. And then it testifies, with the help of Moran indexI, the existence of spatial autocorrelation, and finally explores the regional demand, real estate investment,foreign trade, airport cargo volume, rail freight, science and education expenditure indicators on regionalfinancial capital based on the establishment of Space Durbin Model. The result indicates that there is the socialconsumption has a positive effect on the regional fund aggregation. Real estate investment and import andexport trade have positive and significant effect on fund aggregation before 2014, but later the effect on thefund aggregation is not significant as a whole. The airport cargo volume plays a significant role in promotingon the regional fund aggregation, but the railway freight volume has a negative effect. The expenditure ofscience and education has a significant effect on the regional fund aggregation. The aggregation of funds hasspatial spillover effect.