“南海行为准则”案文磋商演变、现状及我对策思考

The Evolution and Current Situation of Negotiation of“Code of Conduct for the South China Sea”and China's Countermeasures

东盟自1967年成立以来,一直尽可能地规避他国对其内部团结与发展的影响,保持和不断塑造自身的独立性。始于20世纪70年代中期的南海问题,给东盟自身发展提出了新的挑战,特别是随着1991年我国与东盟开始正式对话及柬埔寨问题最终得到和平解决之后,南海问题凸显为制约我国—东盟关系进一步发展的关键变量。从2002年《南海各方行为宣言》的签署,到2017年"南海行为准则"框架协议的达成,正是我国和东盟共同付出的努力。2018年3月开始,中国和东盟将开始逐步启动有关"准则"的案文磋商,但鉴于地缘政治的复杂性,这一过程注定将是异常艰巨的。本文通过回顾并对比《宣言》与"准则"达成的历史进程,分析"准则"案文磋商过程中将面临的种种挑战与考验,并在这一基础上提出合理的对策思考。

Since the establishment of ASEAN in 1967,ASEAN has been trying to avoid the influence of other countries on its internal unity and development as much as possible,it has been maintaining and continuously shaping its own independence.However,the South China Sea issue which began in the mid-1970s poses new challenges.Particularly following the formal dialogue between China and ASEAN in 1991 and the final settlement of the Cambodian issue,the South China Sea issue became a major constraint and key variable for the further development of China-ASEAN relations.The signing of the"Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea"(DOC)in2002 and the agreement of framework of the"Code of Conduct in the South China Sea"(COC)in 2017 are the joint effort of China and ASEAN to resolve the South China Sea issue.In the beginning of March 2018,China and ASEAN gradually initiated text-related consultations on the COC.But due to the complexity of geopolitics,this process is destined to be difficult.This article will review and compare the historical process of DOC and COC,analyze the various challenges which will be faced in the COC text negotiation process,and conclude possible countermeasures on this basis.