利用最大降水量拟合福州城市内涝积水深度的误差分析

Error Analysis of Waterlogging Depth using Maximum Precipitation fitting in Fuzhou City

利用2015—2016年福州城区内涝和地面气象观测资料,分析内涝成因、最大降雨量与积水深度的关系,建立城市内涝积水深度拟合方程,并对拟合效果进行了检验。结果表明:1)导致福州城市内涝的突发性原因占26%,是城市管网等数据更新困难的主因,非突发性原因占74%;2)在3次不同天气系统的降雨量拟合结果中,雨季降水过程拟合平均绝对误差最小,午后雷雨天气降雨过程拟合平均绝对误差最大;3)对内涝积水深度负拟合值进行归零处理和阈值限定后,其结果均与实况相符;4)基于最新数据资料所得拟合值的误差更小。

Based on the 2015-2016 waterlogging data and meteorological data of Fuzhou city,the formation of waterlogging and the relationship between maximum precipitation and the waterlogging depth were discussed.The fitting effect of waterlogging depth was evaluated using liner equation and mean absolute error.The results showed that：1）In Fuzhou,the sudden causes of waterlogging occupied 26%,which mainly resulted in the difficulty of urban pipeline network data updating,while the non-sudden causes accounted for 74%.2）For three kinds of different weather systems,the average absolute error of fitting in the rainy season was the smallest,and for afternoon thunderstorm it was the largest.3）After returning the negative fitting values of waterlogging depth to zero and setting the threshold,the fitting result was in good agreement with the real.4）The fitting error was smaller based on the latest data.