东南亚金融危机后中泰旅游与贸易互动关系研究

An Empirical Study on Sino-Thai Interactive Relationship between Bilateral Tourism and Trade after Southeast Asian Financial Crisis

本文选取1997—2016年中国—泰国双边旅游与进出口贸易数据,通过Johansen协整检验、VECM模型和脉冲响应实证分析它们之间的关系,研究发现:中泰进出口贸易一直存在贸易逆差,双边旅游市场发展也不平衡,在旅游和贸易上泰国对中国的依赖程度一直处于高位。泰国入境中国客流量和两国进口、出口贸易均存在正向的长期协整关系,中国出境泰国客流量和两国贸易逆差存在负向关系。泰国入境中国客流量对中国进口泰国贸易的正向冲击有很强的持续性,但对中国出口泰国贸易的正向冲击作用只能持续两年左右。中国出口泰国贸易增长会在短期内引发泰国入境中国客流量增长,但不具有持续性。中泰贸易逆差仍有继续扩大的张力,其进一步扩大会抑制中国出境泰国客流量的增长,不利于中国出境泰国旅游市场的发展。中国出口泰国贸易引发的主要是"观光休闲"游客,中国进口泰国贸易引发的主要是"会议商务"游客。

The data of bilateral tourism and import and export trade between China and Thailand from 1997 to 2016 were selected in this paper. The Johansen co-integration test,VECM model and impulse response were used to analyze the empirical relationship between them.The development of inbound tourism and outbound tourism between China and Thailand is not steady,while the development of international trade is relatively stable,and the trade deficit has always existed. There is a positive long-term cointegration relationship between the inbound tourists from Thailand to China and the import from Thailand to China as well as the relationship with the export from China to Thailand,while there is a negative long-term cointegration relationship between the outbound tourists from China to Thailand and trade deficit,and the increase of the outbound tourists from China to Thailand can reduce the amount of trade deficit. The impulse of inbound tourists from Thailand to China to import from Thailand to China has a strong continuity,while that to export from China to Thailand can only last about two years. The increase of export from China to Thailand will lead the increase of inbound tourists from Thailand to China in a short term but it is not sustainable and may be more pronounced in the third year.The increase of trade deficit will lead to a decrease in outbound tourists from China to Thailand in the current year and a downward trend in the following years,and is not conductive to the development of the outbound tourism from China to Thailand.