寡头垄断市场下国际铁矿石价格波动的动因分析

Analysis of the Motive of International Iron Ore Price Fluctuation in Oligopoly Market

作为世界第一大铁矿石进口国,我国却未能掌握铁矿石的国际定价权。在四大矿商垄断了市场供给的背景下,国际铁矿石价格大幅波动增加了我国钢铁企业的成本。文章选取2010年1月到2016年12月的月度数据, 从供需、金融、成本、运输等视角构建向量自回归模型,对寡头垄断市场下国际铁矿石价格的影响因素进行了分析。研究结论:铁矿石价格波动受自身价格影响程度最大,稳定在63.4%左右;供需基本面影响度为4.6%;金融因素影响度为21.5%;生产成本对价格影响度在6.0%左右;海运费对价格影响度长期稳定在4.5%。金融资本是影响国际铁矿石价格波动的主要因素。主流矿商和国际投行通过指数定价机制,借助"中国因素"操纵国际铁矿石价格。

As the world largest importer of iron ore, China had no iron ore international pricing power. In the background of monopolized the market supply by the big four miners, the sharp fuctuation of international iron ore price increased the cost of our steel enterprises. With the data from January 2010 to December 2016, this paper constructed the vector autoregressive model by the perspective of supply and demand, fnance, cost and transportation, then analyzed the infuence factors of international iron ore price in oligopoly market. Research conclusions： Iron ore price fuctuation was the most affected by its own price, stabled at about 63.4%; the fundamentals of supply and demand were 4.6%; the fnancial factors were 21.5%; the cost of production was about 6.0%; Sea freight had a long-term stability of 4.5% for price infuence. Financial capital was the main factor that infuenced the fuctuation of international iron ore price. Mainstream miners and international investment banks used the index pricing mechanism to manipulate international iron ore prices with the help of ＂China factor＂.