河北省及环首都经济圈住宅用地价格变化研究

Study on the Values Change of Residential Land of Hebei Province and the Circle of Economy around the Capital

利用GIS技术与数理统计方法,对河北省2011—2016年住宅用地价格空间演变及影响因素进行分析,并以环首都地区作为重点区域进行研究。研究表明:(1)全省住宅用地价格Ⅰ类区逐步向Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类区转变,省域内存在平泉县—三河市—赞皇县住宅用地价格"分界线";(2)环首都经济圈13个地区住宅用地价格呈增长趋势,区位优势地区住宅用地价格提升较早,2016年以前环首都西北部地区,住宅用地价格变化相对迟缓;(3)住宅用地价格与常住城镇人口、固定资产投资等因素存在显著相关,相关程度存在差异。未来整体上住宅用地需求增速趋缓,住宅用地价格提升有一定空间。建议构建大数据分析网络,加强监测监管严格市场管控,完善土地供给制度优化供应结构。

Using GIS technology and mathematical statistics method, we analyzed the values change of residential land and infuencing factors from 2011 to 2016 in Hebei Province and around the capital as a key area. The conclusions are as follows. Firstly, the values of residential land of the whole province has gradually changed from class I to class II and class III. There is the demarcation line of the values of the residential land, which is Pingquan County – Sanhe City - Zanhuang County in the province. Secondly, the values of residential land of 13 districts of the circle of economy around the capital have been increasing and the values of residential land in location advantage have increased earlier and before 2016, the values of residential land of the northwest region around the capital changed relatively slowly. Thirdly, the values of residential land are related to the factors such as permanent residents in urban areas and investment in the fxed assets, but there are differences in the degree of correlation. In the future, overall, residential demand will slow down and the values of residential land have the potential to increase. This paper points out that we should structure data analysis network; strengthen supervision and regulation the market; improve land supply system and optimize for supply structure.