新疆农业结构调整与农地资源优化配置研究——基于格兰杰因果检验

Research Between the Agricultural Industrial Structure Adjustment and the Optimization Allocation of the Agricultural Land Resources in Xinjiang——Based on Granger causality test

运用格兰杰因果检验模型对新疆农业产业结构调整与农地资源配置之间的互动关系进行了验证,可以看出,新疆农业产业结构调整与农地资源优化配置还未形成双向的因果关系,仅表现为农用地利用结构的调整推动农业产业结构的变化,并且农地利用结构的变化对农业产业结构变化的影响具有滞后性.因此,农业供给侧改革中调整农业产业结构,应先从农地结构调整入手.

The reform of agricultural supply side points out the direction for solving the problems of agricultural development, promoting the sustainable and stable development of agriculture and accelerating the modernization of agriculture. Agricultural land is the most basic and irreplaceable means of agricultural production, optimizing the allocation of land resources is the key to the sustainable development of agriculture, so there is a significant corresponding interactive relationship between the regional agricultural industrial structure adjustment and agricultural land resources. The interactive relationship between Xinjiang agricultural industry structure adjustment and agricultural land resource allocation has been analyses using granger causality test. By granger causality analysis can be seen, agricultural land use structure and agriculture industry structure in Xinjiang has not yet formed a two-way causal relationship, only the performance of the agricultural land use structure adjustment to push the change of agricultural industry structure, and land use structure changes faster than the change of agricultural structure.