美国页岩革命与俄罗斯东进油气出口战略构建

Russian Strategy for Oil and Natural Gas Exporting Against US Shale Revolution

在页岩革命推动下,2008年以来,美国油气产量大幅增长,对进口油气的依存度逐年下降;与此同时,俄罗斯的油气产量逐年萎缩,对欧洲市场的出口持续减少。美国页岩繁荣与俄罗斯油气出口不振的同步出现表明二者存在较强的关联。美国页岩革命不但使俄罗斯的油气出口面临量价齐跌的双重打击,加剧了国内经济困难,而且削弱了其地缘政治影响力。为摆脱政治经济困局,俄罗斯对以欧洲为中心的传统油气出口战略进行调整,确定了"东进"油气出口战略,寻求提高在亚太地区的市场份额,以此作为扭转困境的重要途径。特朗普上台后的能源优先政策使得俄罗斯的油气出口战略调整具有长期性趋势。

Since 2008, US oil and gas output has risen dramatically as the result of the Shale Revolution and has become less dependent on oil and gas import. On the other hand, Russian oil and gas export to the European market keeps dropping as the result of its shrinking output. The US shale gas booming has caused the drop in Russian oil and gas output and exporting price, and has weakened Russia＇ s geopolitical influence. To get rid of the political and economic difficulties it faced, Russia adjusted its Europe-oriented oil and gas exporting strategy and took measures to increase its share in Asian-Pacific market. Russia＇ s adjustment to its oil and gas exporting strategy tends to last long in the context of Trump administration＇ s emphasis on energy.