AHP与马尔科夫模型在封闭式组合电器状态评估中的应用

Research on GIS state evaluation method based on AHP and Markov model

为了找到GIS(Gas Insulated Switchgear)设备准确、高效的状态评估方法,根据封闭式组合电器(GIS)各方面故障因素,提出了一种基于马尔科夫模型的GIS设备状态评估方法。从GIS的结构层面将其状态分为正常运行、断路器故障、绝缘介质故障、预防性故障等9种状态,建立了马尔科夫状态模型。根据马尔科夫模型计算出各个状态的故障概率,运用层次分析法(AHP)计算各状态权重实现GIS状态评估。经过实例分析,验证了该模型和算法的正确性。

To find out the accurate and efficient state evaluation method of the GIS（ Gas Insulated Switchgear） device,a state evaluation method of GIS equipment based on Markov model is proposed. All aspects of the failure factors of GIS have been considered. At the structural level of GIS,its state is divided into nine states： normal operation,circuit breaker failure,insulation medium failure,preventive failure,and other 9 kinds of states. The markov state model is established,and according to the Markov model,AHP is used to calculate each state weight to realize GIS state evaluation. Finally case analysis verifies the correctness of the model and algorithm.