农业供给侧结构性改革背景下农民收入增长的影响因素——以吉林省四平市为例

The Influence Factors of Farmer Income Growth under the Background of Agricultural Supply-Side Structural Reform:Evidence from Siping City in Jilin Province

以农业大市吉林省四平市为研究样本,利用1990-2015年数据,实证分析了影响农民收入增长的因素,得出如下结论。(1)从各因素的显著性来看,1990-2015年,农业产出和价格对农民收入具有显著影响,其弹性分别为0.7左右和1.3~1.8之间;2012-2015年,价格和财政支农支出对农民收入的影响显著提高。(2)从各因素的贡献来看,1990-2015年,农业产出和价格仅仅能够解释不足1/3的农民收入增长,其余2/3的农民收入增长归功于残差因素,而在2012-2015年,农业产出和价格解释了大部分农民收入增长(83%),其中14%来源于农业产出的增加,69%来源于价格的增长。(3)近年来农民收入增长放缓是由于价格和农业产出增长速度的下降所致,特别是价格大幅度下降对农民收入的负面影响较大。

The paper take Siping city as the research object. This paper empirically analyzes the factors that influence the growth of farmers income, using data from 1990 to 2015. The results showed that, （1） agricultural output and price had a significant impact on farmers income, and their elasticity was around 0.7 and between 1.3-1.8.Since 2012, the impact of price and financial support on farmers income has been significantly increased. （2）From the perspective of the contribution of vari- ous factors, agricultural output and price only can explain less than 1/3 of the farmers＇ income growth, the remaining 2/3 of the farmers＇ income growth is attributed to residual factor from 1990 to 2015, and from 2012-2015, agricultural output and prices explain most of the farmers＇ income growth （83%）, 14% of which comes from the increase of agricultural output, 69% from the price increase. （3）Farmers＇ income growth has declined in recent years, it was caused by the decline in the growth rate of price and agricultural output in recent years. Specially, the large price drop has a negative impact on farmers income.