厚松散层开采松散层沉降时间序列模型研究

Study on Time Series Model of Loose Layer Settlement in Thick Loose Layer Mining

针对厚松散层下开采松散层沉降特征的问题,将松散层动态沉降过程分为初始阶段、发展阶段和衰减阶段,根据厚松散层的物理力学性质的不同,利用Weibull时间序列函数模型分析松散层动态沉降过程。以兖州矿区为例,结合松散层沉降的实际观测结果的变化规律,并对其进行Weibull函数拟合,结果表明Weibull时间序列模型可以很好地解释厚松散层开采松散层沉降过程,预测松散层沉降值。

According to the mining of loose layer under thick loose layer settlement characteristics,loose layer dynamic settlement process is divided into initial stage, development stage and decay stage,according to the physical and mechanical properties of thick loose layer of loose layer sequence function model to analyze dynamic subsidence process by using Weibull time. Taking Yanzhou mining area as an example, combined with the variation rule of the actual observation results of loose layer settlement, and fitting it with Weibull function, the results show that Weibull time series model can well explain the subsidence process of loose layer in thick unconsolidated layer mining.