地方政府性债务风险、不良资产处置与金融稳定

Debt Risk of Local Government,Disposal of Non-performing Assets and Financial Stability

通过构造基础模型和扩展模型,对地方政府性债务风险传染机制、不良资产处置在规避系统区域性金融风险中的作用进行理论探讨。结果显示,个别地方政府债务风险会逐渐传染至其他地方政府,并最终传递至金融体系,形成系统性金融风险;而不良资产处置能够提高银行预期收益进而提高风险容忍度,缓释地方政府性债务风险传染。因此,我国一方面需要协调推进财政分权、金融集权改革,从根本上解决地方政府性债务问题;另一方面需要优化不良资产处置环境、丰富不良资产处置工具,从路径上隔离地方财政风险与金融稳定。

By constructing a basic model and an expansion model, a study is conducted in this paper to theoreti- cally discuss the roles of the debt risk of local government and the disposal of non-performing assets in evading the regional financial risks. The result shows that the debt risk of some local governments will gradually spread to other local governments, and ultimately to the financial system, resulting in systemic financial risks. The dispos- al of non-performing assets can increase the bank＇s expected earnings and risk tolerance, and delay the release of local government debt risk infection. Therefore, on the one hand, it is important for China to promote reforms of fiscal decentralization and financial centralization so as to fundamentally solve the problem of local government debt. On the other hand, it is necessary to optimize the disposal environment of non-performing assets and enrich the disposal tools for non-performing assets, and to isolate local fiscal risks from financial stability on the path.