考虑离散程度的公路工程稳评风险定量分析

Quantitative Analysis of Highway Project Stability Risk Considering Discrete Degree

针对工程项目在进行社会稳定风险分析或者评估时,在利用德尔菲法或者一般专家调查法中专家对风险因素进行打分时,考虑专家对风险的把握度并依此确定某一风险中的专家权重。结合案例在专家打分的基础上利用峰度系数、偏度系数和变异系数检验,分析数据的离散程度、数据对称情况及是否具有厚尾分布的数字特征等,对不合格数据利用专家打分时给出的调整范围优化,检验合格后的数据进入下一步分析使用。

In view of the project in the social stability of the risk analysis or assessment,in the use of Delphi method or general expert survey of experts in the risk factor to score,consider the expert＇s degree of risk and determine the weight of the experts in a certain risk. Combined with the case in the expert scoring on the basis of the use of kurtosis coefficient,skew coefficient and coefficient of variation test,analyze the discrepancy of the data,the symmetry of the data,and whether there are digital features with thick tails,the use of non-qualified data when the expert given the adjustment range given when the adjustment of qualified data into the next step analysis and use.