刑事司法中的风险调查与评估——以审前释放为视角

Risk Investigation and Assessmentin Criminal Justice——From the Perspective of Pretrial Release

审前释放风险指的是犯罪嫌疑人、被告人处于非羁押状态下等待审判时,可能毁灭证据、威胁证人、逃避刑事追诉等现实危险的概率与程度之综合,深刻影响着＂羁押例外＂原则在刑事司法实践中的贯彻程度,针对它开展的调查与评估工作在域外刑事司法实践中积攒了一定经验。审前释放风险的调查主体与评估主体常常重合,由审前释放的决定主体兼任和由第三方社会支持主体专职是域外的两种基本模式。依据通过调查所获取的风险要素是否可以在外界干预下发生改变的判断标准,审前释放风险的调查可以分为对静态风险要素的调查和对动态风险要素的调查,二者分别对应了涉案情况、事后表现和品格证据、监管条件四项具体调查内容。审前释放风险的评估方法有基于主观经验判断的临床评估,依靠数理统计技术开展的精算评估,以及关注动态风险要素、强调风险预测与释放后的监管相结合的结构性专家评估。

The risk of pretrial release is the probability and degree that suspects or defendants destroy evidence,intimidate witnesses and disturb criminal proceedings. It has a profound influence on the implementation of the principle of ＂custody is the exception＂ in judicial practice. Meanwhile, the risk investigation and assessment of pretrial release have accumulated some experience in other foreign countries. The risk investigation subject and the risk assessment subject are overlapped in many cases, pretrial release determiners or third-party social support organizations play such a role means two models at abroad. Based on the standards that whether the risk factors could be changed under the outside intervention, the pretrial release risk investigation could be divided into the investigation of static risk factors and the investigation of dynamic risk factors. Accordingly, the former focuses on suspects or defendants＇ behaviors in the cases and their performance in hindsight, while the latter concentrates on the character evidence and supervision conditions. For specific methods of pretrial release risk assessment, clinical assessment performs its functions by subjective experience, actuarial assessment depends on the mathematical statistics technology, and the structured professional judgment pays more attention to dynamic risk factors and strengthens the combination of pretrial release risk predictions and the supervision after release.