基于投入产出分析的内蒙古虚拟水消费及贸易研究

Study on Virtual Water Consumption and Trade Based on Input-output Analysis in Inner Mongolia

为探索内蒙古自治区缓解水资源短缺压力的途径、保障能源安全和粮食安全,采用水资源投入产出方法分析了自治区2007、2012、2015年直接用水系数、完全用水系数及虚拟水消费与贸易量、结构及变化趋势,提出合理化对策建议。结果表明,第一产业直接用水系数和完全用水系数远高于第二、三产业,大量虚拟水通过产品以间接形式从第一产业转移到二、三产业;各产业完全用水系数和直接用水率均呈下降趋势,说明三次产业用水效率不断提高且产业之间联系不断加强;削减第一、二产业最终需求中虚拟水含量、适当增加第三产业最终需求在总最终需求中的比重,可优化需求过程的虚拟水消费结构;受第一产业虚拟水由净输出转为净输入影响,内蒙古自治区由虚拟水净输出地区转为净输入地区,虚拟水贸易结构趋于合理化。研究成果可为区域水资源管理提供参考。

In order to alleviate the water shortage and safeguard energy security and food security in Inner Mongolia, based on the input-output method, the volumes of direct and total water input coefficients, virtual water volume of final demands and trade in 2007, 2012 and 2015 were calculated, the changing trend and rationality of the structure were ana- lyzed, and some suggestions for rationalization were put forward. The results show that the volumes of direct and total water input coefficients of the first industry are much higher than that of the second and third industries, and the virtual water is transferred from the first industry to the second and third industries through the products flow. The volumes of direct and total water input coefficients of the first, second, and third industries industry are all downward trend, indicating that the water efficiency of the three industries is improving continuously, and the connection among the three industries is closer. The virtual water consumption structure of the demand process can be optimized by reducing the virtual water content in the final demand of the first and second industries, and appropriately increasing the proportion of the final demand of the tertiary industry in the final demand. The virtual water export structure tends to be reasonable. Since the virtual water of the first industry is converted from the net output to the net input, the Inner Mongolia is converted into a virtual water net input region, and the virtual water trade structure tends to be rationalized. The results can provide reference for regional water resources management.