人口老龄化背景下企业年金的空间差异及其B-N分解

Spatial Difference and B-N Decomposition of Pension in the Background of Aging

以2001～2013年世界范围内30个国家为研究样本,通过全局Moran’s I指数测度世界范围内企业年金的空间差异及其相关性,并在多维距离下选用空间向量自回归模型与B-N模型探析企业年金的影响因素及其分解。实证结果表明:第一,世界范围内企业年金有着较大差异的同时具有显著的空间正相关性,而且B-N分解表明,这一空间相关性更多地来自于趋势性成分;第二,企业年金对其自身有显著的空间正效应,同时B-N分解证实,这一效应不仅来自于趋势性成分,也来自于周期性成分;第三,失业率、预期通胀率和政府稳定性对企业年金的发展具有明显的阻碍作用,主要通过趋势性成分得以实现。本文由此挖掘出了导致企业年金发展存在差异的根源,并提出了我国发展企业年金的对策和建议。

Based on 30 countries from 2001 to 2013, this paper measures the difference and spatial correlation in pension through global Moran ＇s I index and analyzes the factors and their decomposition in the multidimensional distance by the regression model and the B-N model. The empirical results show that： firstly, pension in the worldwide has significant difference, at the same time and still has a positive and significant spatial correlation, further B-N decomposition showing that the spatial correlation is more from the trend component; secondly, it has a significant positive effect on its own space, especially the B-N decomposition further shows that this effect is not only from the trend component, but also from periodic components; thirdly, the unemployment rate, expectations of inflation and the government＇s stability can significantly prevent the development of pension, mainly through the trend component, especially random component to achieve this, good to dig out the root cause of the differences in the development of pension. Finally, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the development of pension in China in order to promote our country to build a more perfect security system for the aged.